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[1]任国恒,王健,朱海.灰色理论用于遥测数据中长期预测[J].武汉工程大学学报,2014,(05):74-78.[doi:103969/jissn16742869201505016]
　REN Guo heng,WANG Jian,ZHU Hai.Prediction of medium and longterm telemetry data by grey theory[J].Journal of Wuhan Institute of Technology,2014,(05):74-78.[doi:103969/jissn16742869201505016]
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灰色理论用于遥测数据中长期预测(/HTML)
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《武汉工程大学学报》[ISSN:1674-2869/CN:42-1779/TQ]

卷:
期数:
2014年05期
页码:
74-78
栏目:
机电与信息工程
出版日期:
2014-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of medium and longterm telemetry data by grey theory
文章编号:
16742869(2014)05007405
作者:
任国恒; 王健; 朱海
周口师范学院计算机科学与技术学院，河南 周口 466001
Author(s):
REN Guoheng; WANG Jian; ZHU Hai
School of Computer Science and Technology,Zhoukou Normal University,Zhoukou 466001,China
关键词:
灰色理论; GM(1; 1)模型; 中长期预测; 遥测数据
Keywords:
rey theory; GM (1; 1) model; prediction of medium and longterm; telemetry data
分类号:
TP391
DOI:
103969/jissn16742869201505016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对卫星在轨测控过程中，遥测数据变化趋势不易判断这一问题，提出了对遥测数据进行中长期预测的思想.基于灰色系统理论，结合遥测数据特点和中长期预测要求，对灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的建模过程和预测精度进行研究.依据所构建的模型进行预测验证分析，根据后验差比值、小误差概率、预测精度对预测结果的评价分析显示，该方法可以对遥测数据中长期趋势起到提前预报的作用，符合卫星遥测数据中长期预测要求.预测结果能够为测控人员对卫星遥测数据未来趋势的分析和潜在故障的预警判断提供理论支持.
Abstract:
Aimed at the trend of telemetry data difficult to determine during the monitoring process of satellite inorbit,an idea of medium and longterm forecasting telemetry was put forward.The modeling process and prediction accuracy of GM (1,1) model was studied based on the gray system theory,the characteristics of telemetry data and longterm forecasts requirement.The prediction model was used in an engineering case.The evaluation results according to posterior poor radio,small error possibility and forecast accuracy show that prediction results play a role in middle longterm trends forecast,meeting the requirements of satellite telemetry data forecast.Predicted results can provide a scientific basis for monitoring personnel to analyze the future trends and forecast the potentialfailure in advance.

参考文献/References:

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相似文献/References:

[1]任国恒,王 健,朱 海.灰色理论用于遥测数据中长期预测[J].武汉工程大学学报,2014,(04):8.
　REN Guo-heng,WANG Jian,ZHU Hai.Prediction of medium and long-term telemetry data by grey theory[J].Journal of Wuhan Institute of Technology,2014,(05):8.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：20140314基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（61103143）；河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(14B520014)；周口师范学院青年基金项目（zknuc0214）作者简介：任国恒（1982），男，河南周口人，讲师，硕士.研究方向：云计算与数据挖掘.
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-06-15